How Changing Rainfall Patterns May Be Affecting Farmers in Benue State, Nigeria

In August 2026, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) warned that drier-than-normal conditions could affect parts of Benue State during the August–October period. For farmers who depend on seasonal rainfall, such a warning matters. A dry spell at a critical stage of crop development can threaten the time, labour and money invested in a farm.

Benue is one of Nigeria’s important agricultural states, and rainfall timing can influence planting, crop growth and harvesting. But how much are changing rainfall patterns affecting farmers’ decisions and livelihoods?

Research conducted in Benue and other parts of north-central Nigeria has documented fluctuations in rainfall characteristics, changes in temperature and farmers’ responses to perceived climate variability. NiMet’s 2026 forecasts have also highlighted the need for seasonal planning. The available evidence, however, does not yet establish the scale of rainfall-related losses on Benue farms during 2026.

WHAT THE RESEARCH SHOWS

A 2022 study by S. J. Idakpo, F. Terdoo and B. Yusuf examined selected rainfall characteristics and yam production in Makurdi and Gboko, two locations in Benue State. The researchers analysed rainfall records from 1980 to 2015 and yam production data covering 1986 to 2011.

The study considered annual rainfall totals, the number of rainy days, growing-season length, rainfall onset and cessation. Its findings showed fluctuations in these characteristics over time, with differences between Makurdi and Gboko.

The relationship between rainfall and yam production was not uniform. Most of the correlations examined were statistically insignificant, although rainfall amount and the number of rainy days showed significant relationships with yam production in Gboko. The findings suggest that rainfall characteristics may matter for production in particular locations rather than demonstrating a uniform effect across Benue State.

An earlier study by A. A. Falaki, O. J. Ajayi, J. A. Akangbe and S. O. Akande compared farmers’ perceptions of temperature and rainfall with meteorological records covering 1980 to 2009. Published in the Nigerian Journal of Rural Sociology in 2013, it reported increasing trends in minimum and maximum temperatures and rainfall amounts. Farmers also reported responses to perceived climate variability, including changing planting dates.

A related 2013 study by Falaki, Akangbe and O. E. Ayinde examined farmers’ perceptions of climate change in north-central Nigeria. The researchers used temperature and rainfall records from Makurdi Meteorological Station as a proxy for the study area. They reported increasing trends in temperature and rainfall amounts, alongside rainfall unpredictability.

These studies offer historical context, but their records end well before the 2026 farming season. They cannot tell us how individual farmers have fared this year.

Why rainfall timing matters

The amount of rain received during a season is only part of the picture. When rain begins, how consistently it falls and when it stops can influence farm decisions.

An early shower may encourage a farmer to plant. If a prolonged dry spell follows before seedlings establish themselves, germination and early crop growth may be affected. Depending on the crop and conditions, the farmer may need to replant, adding to seed, labour and time costs.

Heavy rainfall can create different challenges. On vulnerable land, intense rain may wash away exposed topsoil, while poorly drained fields may become waterlogged. Excess moisture can also complicate field operations and harvesting. If rainfall ends earlier than expected, crops that still need water to mature may be affected.

The risks differ by crop, planting date, soil conditions, location and access to irrigation. Farmers must make decisions before knowing exactly how the season will unfold. Planting too early can expose crops to a subsequent dry spell, while delaying planting may shorten the time available for growth and maturity.

WHAT NIMET’S 2026 FORECASTS SAY

On 10 February 2026, NiMet announced its Seasonal Climate Prediction for the year, warning of variable rainfall, prolonged dry spells and warmer temperatures in parts of Nigeria. Its initial outlook projected an early onset of rainfall and a longer-than-normal rainy season for Benue.

On 13 August, NiMet published an update covering August and the August–September–October period. It reported that ocean observations confirmed the onset of a strong El Niño event in 2026. El Niño is a climate phenomenon that can influence weather patterns in different parts of the world.

For August–October, NiMet forecast drier-than-normal conditions over Oyo, Ogun, Lagos, Osun, Ekiti, Edo and Delta states. It added that these conditions were likely to affect Kogi and parts of Benue.

The update also offered agricultural guidance. It advised farmers to avoid unnecessary fertiliser applications during dry spells and to apply fertiliser after effective rainfall. It recommended monitoring fields for weeds, pests and diseases associated with wetter conditions and encouraged farmers to work closely with agricultural extension officers. Some of this advice applies to wetter areas rather than Benue, which was identified as potentially affected by drier-than-normal conditions.

NiMet’s separate drainage advice specifically named Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Zamfara, Kebbi and Sokoto, where above-normal rainfall was expected.

The February and August forecasts addressed different aspects and periods of the season. An early onset and a longer predicted rainy season do not rule out dry spells or below-normal rainfall during a particular period.

As October draws to a close, the forecast period is nearly over. Assessing how well the outlook matched conditions on farms requires observed rainfall records and agricultural evidence, not the forecast alone.

OPTIONS FOR ADAPTING TO RAINFALL VARIABILITY

Farmers can combine their knowledge of local conditions with NiMet forecasts and advice from agricultural extension officers. The first rainfall should not automatically be treated as a guarantee that rain will continue consistently. Timely forecasts can help inform planting decisions and preparation for dry spells.

Early-maturing varieties may help where the growing season is shorter than expected, while drought-tolerant varieties may reduce some risks when water is limited. Their suitability depends on the crop, location, seed availability and local advice.

Water management is another consideration. Where feasible, rainwater harvesting and supplementary irrigation can help provide water during dry periods. However, equipment, storage and infrastructure can be costly, placing these options beyond the reach of some farmers.

Agroforestry—the integration of trees with crops or livestock—can also support farm resilience. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) identifies benefits including improved soil health and water management, reduced erosion and more diverse farm production. However, agroforestry is not a quick financial solution: FAO reports that profitable returns typically take three to eight years, compared with one to two years for annual crops. Farmers therefore need to consider land access, upfront costs and long-term plans before adopting it.

Access to resources remains important. The 2013 Benue study by Falaki and colleagues identified credit, farm inputs and weather-forecasting services as relevant to farmers’ ability to adapt. Information alone may not be enough if farmers cannot afford suitable seeds, additional labour or water-management measures.

WHAT REMAINS TO BE ESTABLISHED

Historical research shows that rainfall characteristics have fluctuated in parts of Benue and that farmers have reported adjusting planting dates. NiMet’s 2026 update also warned that drier-than-normal conditions could affect parts of the state during August–October.

Establishing the scale of the effects on farms and household incomes during 2026 would require comparing observed rainfall records with production data and gathering accounts from farmers in affected communities.

This report relies on published research and official climate documents. No new interviews with Benue farmers or agricultural extension officers were available for this report, so it does not present individual farm experiences as verified evidence.

For farmers, timely weather information is most useful when combined with practical agricultural advice and resources to act on it. For policymakers and agricultural support organisations, improving access to forecasts, extension services, farm inputs and financing may help farmers make more informed decisions.

Understanding how rainfall variability affects Benue’s farmers requires local weather observations, current production data and direct evidence of farmers’ experiences.