Heavy El Niño Rains Put Kenya on Alert

For many Kenyans, the sound of heavy rain no longer brings relief. Instead, it brings fear, painful memories and the worry of losing everything all over again.

As Kenya prepares for unusually heavy El Niño rains expected between October and December 2026, residents in flood-prone communities are taking precautions. The warnings come after devastating floods in 2024 left families homeless, destroyed businesses and claimed lives.

Mary Okello, a resident of Mathare in Nairobi, knows just how quickly a rainy day can turn into a nightmare. During the 2024 floods, she was working at her hair salon when she received news of the rising water. She rushed home to evacuate her five children, but they watched helplessly as their belongings were swept away.

Today, she lives on higher ground, but the fear remains. With November expected to bring the heaviest rainfall, many families are wondering whether they will be safe this time.

Kenya’s Meteorological Service has warned that the coming rainy season could bring unusually intense rainfall. The National Disaster Operations Centre has also urged people living near rivers and in low-lying areas to move to safer locations, warning that about 1.5 million people could be affected.

Why the Fear of Flooding Is Growing

The concern goes beyond the weather forecast. In many parts of Nairobi, poor drainage systems, blocked waterways and homes built close to rivers make flooding more dangerous.

A report by the World Resources Institute has highlighted how poor urban planning, the loss of wetlands and weak enforcement of land-use rules have increased Nairobi’s vulnerability to floods.

For families living along riverbanks, the danger is especially personal. Some have already lost their homes and possessions, while others are struggling to find affordable housing in safer areas.

Jackline Mueni, who survived the 2024 floods, remembers how families lost important documents, including birth certificates and identification cards. She says the suffering was particularly painful for women and children, and that some people lost their lives.

Although moving away from dangerous areas could save lives, many residents say the high cost of living makes it difficult to relocate.

Residents and Authorities Take Action

With another rainy season approaching, residents and government officials are working to reduce the risk of flooding.

In Mathare, cleanup teams are removing garbage from drainage systems and waterways to help rainwater flow freely. Local residents have also joined the efforts, hoping to prevent the river from overflowing into their homes.

Victor Ojoo, who previously lost his pigs and source of income during the floods, is among those helping to clean the Mathare River. For him, preparing early is important because another disaster could mean starting his life from scratch once again.

Authorities have also identified 172 possible shelters where displaced residents could receive food and medicine. Nairobi County is planning to work with Safaricom to send emergency alerts and warnings directly to residents’ mobile phones.

Officials say better coordination between emergency agencies will also be important in responding quickly if flooding occurs.

A Season of Uncertainty

Despite the preparations, many families remain anxious. Clearing drains and providing shelters may help, but residents who cannot afford to move away from flood-prone areas are still exposed to danger.

The Kenya Human Rights Commission has warned that the expected rains could create a wider humanitarian crisis, particularly for communities already struggling with displacement and limited access to basic services.

As the rainy season continues, residents are being encouraged to pay attention to official weather updates, avoid dangerous waterways and take early steps to protect their families and belongings.

For people like Mary Okello, the hope is not simply that the rains will pass. It is that this time, the warnings will be taken seriously, preparations will make a difference, and families will not have to relive the heartbreak of 2024.

Because when the rain begins to fall, what matters most is not how much water reaches the ground, but how many people are kept safe.